Are the Computers Turning Their Backs on the Rays?

PORT CHARLOTTE — Et tu, Apple? How about Hewlett Packard? And Dell as well?

After all these years, have the computers abandoned their favorite Major League Baseball team? The Rays may have helped usher in the era of computer modeling for a baseball season, but it appears the leading analytic websites have left them behind.

Low Expectations, High Confidence

Baseball Prospectus has the Rays winning 82.3 games this season. Fangraphs is a smidge lower at 82. Even most of the leading sportsbooks in Vegas put Tampa Bay’s over/under for wins at 81.5. Miss the playoffs for the first time since 2018 and suddenly you don’t have enough bytes in your dugout?

“They’re making their predictions based on the algorithms that they use for run prevention and run creation,” closer Pete Fairbanks said. “But that’s not the game being played. We can try to map it all out and we can reduce all sports to math, but the reality is you have to play regardless. So I don’t pay much mind to what Vegas sets a line at or what Fangraphs or whoever else is projecting. Take that for what it’s worth.”

Offensive Struggles and Pitching Strength

There are, of course, reasons for the underwhelming expectations. Starting with a franchise-low 604 runs scored in 2024. The Rays signed Ha-Seong Kim and Danny Jansen, but that was not enough to sway the models. The Fangraphs projections do not show any glaring trouble spots — other than maybe centerfield — but also do not foresee many high-end offensive performers.

The harder-to-understand projections involve the pitching staff. The Rays believe their starting rotation is as good, and deep, as any in the majors. And yet, USA Today does not have Tampa Bay among the top 10 rotations in the game. Neither does CBS Sports. Or MLB.com.

The issue might be that two of Tampa Bay’s top starters — Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen — are coming off elbow surgery, so projections are cautious. But Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley, Shane Baz and Zack Littell combined to throw more than 500 innings last season with a 3.66 ERA. That doesn’t even include Joe Boyle, who is likely to start at Triple-A Durham but might have the most explosive stuff on the staff.

“I can understand where they’re coming from. It’s just body of work, past experience and stuff like that, right?” Cash said. “But every team in baseball would take our rotation.”

The Rays’ Unique Approach

The bottom line is the Rays are just built differently from most teams. They do not have a single player among the top-120 salaries in the game, but instead invest in depth. The idea is the Rays eventually wear other teams down with their versatility. It’s a strategy not based on MVP candidates or prime time attractions but rather having answers for every scenario that arises during a season.

“The same thing happens pretty much every year,” said second baseman Brandon Lowe. “All of the attention goes to the bigger markets, the bigger contracts, that kind of stuff. But they don’t realize what we have inside here. They don’t see what’s happening around here day-in and day-out. People can speculate all they want, but I think every single guy in here is pretty confident about what we’re going to do.

“It just feels like the same tune, the same story every single year. ‘Oh, their pitching is not going to be the same.’ And then Joe Boyle shows up, chucking it at 100 mph with a 95-mph splitter. I don’t know, it’s nothing we need to worry about. I’ll take five playoffs in six years.”

Projected Standings for the AL East

Fangraphs

Yankees: 86-76

Red Sox: 85-77

Orioles: 83-79

Blue Jays: 83-79

Rays: 82-80

Baseball Prospectus

Orioles: 88.3-73.7

Blue Jays: 85.2-76.8

Yankees: 84.2-77.8

Rays: 82.3-79.7

Red Sox: 80-82

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Conclusion

The Rays may not have the highest expectations from the analytics world, but their confidence and unique approach to the game have proven successful in the past. As they enter the new season, they continue to defy the odds and focus on their strengths to achieve success.

FAQs

Q: Why are the projections for the Rays lower than expected?

A: The projections may be cautious due to factors like past injuries and performance, but the Rays believe in the strength of their team and are confident in their abilities.

Q: What sets the Rays apart from other teams?

A: The Rays prioritize depth and versatility over star power, allowing them to adapt to different situations and excel as a team.