In theory, the absolute best outcome for the Rays’ surprising signing of Ha-Seong Kim for $29 million over two years would be him returning from shoulder surgery by mid-May, leading the team to back-to-back World Series championships and earning a statue to be placed at the new stadium being built.
Well, skip that last part.
But the deal — the second largest the Rays ever have given a free-agent position player, behind Greg Vaughn’s $34 million, four-year contract in December 1999 — also can pay off in lesser ways.
From an on-field standpoint, the Rays view Kim as an impact player who can play defense nearly as well as the elite Taylor Walls while providing considerably more offense.
Though not necessarily headline-grabbing, the addition of Kim (whose signing is expected to be finalized early this week) at shortstop and Danny Jansen at catcher, plus the installation of Jonny DeLuca as the primary centerfielder following the trade of strikeout-prone Jose Siri, improves the Rays at three core up-the-middle positions.
Spots from which they needed more production, ranking 27th, 28th and 25th, respectively, in the majors in OPS last year.
If they can get at least league-average production from those three and better than that from most of the others — such as Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe, Christopher Morel (at least power-wise). Richie Palacios and, potentially, Eloy Jimenez — their offense should be notably improved.
Kim is said to be recovering well from Oct. 10 labrum repair surgery, and a late May return seems reasonable. The Rays will have a better idea after their medical staff gets to work with him. At the least, they view him as a high-quality, trade deadline-type acquisition in a season which, despite being displaced by Hurricane Milton to Tampa’s Steinbrenner Field, they expect to contend.
Depending on how Kim builds back arm strength, it’s possible he could return initially to designated hitter or play second base and then move back to shortstop.
Though the Rays are paying Kim a lot of money by their standards, it is not so much in today’s free-agent market. (Among players getting more than his $14.5 million annual average value are Michael Conforto of the Dodgers, and Alex Cobb and Gleyber Torres of the Tigers.)
Kim’s $13 million salary for 2025 will be the highest on the Rays and among the largest they’ve ever paid. If he collects all $2 million in plate-appearance incentives, he’ll match the franchise-record $15 million Charlie Morton got in 2019. (The Rays have been contracted to pay more, but the player either got traded or, in Wander Franco’s case, jeopardized his career with legal issues.)
Kim is due to get $16 million in 2026 but has an opt-out clause that could work to both his and the Rays’ benefit.
Had he not injured his shoulder in mid-August, there was industry speculation he was headed for a nine-figure — that’s $100 million-plus — payday, with an annual average value of around $20 million.
To get a player of that value on a short-term deal is rare, but the Rays have their reasons beyond his on-field upside.
Giving Kim the opt-out allows him, if he returns healthy and plays really well in 2025, to go right back on the market.
But it also allows the Rays — by making a roughly $22 million, one-year qualifying offer he’d presumably reject — to recoup a compensatory draft pick, potentially in the top 35. So, they get most of one season of him for $13 million and a primo pick.
If Kim’s return is delayed and/or he doesn’t play well and wants to stay with the Rays for the $16 million in 2026, they could roll with that or try to trade him before/during the season to offload his salary and get back players.
They could even do the same this season in the suboptimal situation of Kim coming back and playing well while they struggle and fall well out of the race by late July.
About the only situation where the deal could turn out really bad for the Rays would be if Kim has another major injury (or shoulder setback) that sidelines him for a significant portion of the two years, a risk with any player on a multiyear deal.
For the Rays to spend this much on a player, there has to be a way it can work to their advantage. Or several.
Rays rumblings
Given the timing of his injury absence last year, Aranda was given a fourth option by MLB. He is not required, as the Rays had expected, to be kept in the majors all season. … There are two potential chances for some clarity on the team’s future this week: St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch’s State of the City address Tuesday, and an MLB owners meeting Wednesday-Thursday. … After his MVP-winning role in leading Escogido to the Dominican league championship, Caminero is not participating, as planned, in this week’s Caribbean Series tourney in Mexico. … Among those commenting on X about Caminero’s epic Game 7 homer and celebratory trot was NBA star Karl-Anthony Towns, who is of Dominican descent: “Minute and a half around the bases … Dominican ball!” he posted, with flag, fire and laughing emojis. … Diaz was fifth in MLB Network’s “Right Now” ranking of first basemen. Brandon Lowe was seventh at second. … The Athletic’s Jim Bowden had Caminero second on his list of 12 breakout players to watch, and mlb.com had Aranda among its 10. … The spring-opening media session in Port Charlotte is Feb. 11. … The youngest player among the 30 non-roster invitees to big-league camp is infielder Gregory Barrios, who turns 21 on April 8. … MLB.com gave the Rays the early nod on best international signing class. … Still offering only full-season memberships, the Rays, per their ticketing website, have sold all 104 Dugout Club seats at Steinbrenner Field ($29,970 and $26,325) and 125 of 129 Home Plate Box seats ($22,275). The lowest-priced option so far is $6,075 ($75 a game). Single-game ticket prices for the 11,026-capacity stadium and an on-sale date are expected after the Feb. 15 Fan Fest. … Ex-Rays reliever Richard Lovelady and catcher Christian Bethancourt signed minor-league deals with the Blue Jays. … The Rays reportedly will have 10 games using the automatic ball-strike challenge system that is being tested throughout the spring.
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