SUNRISE — We’ll never know.
If the NHL had decided to suspend Panthers forward Matthew Tkachuk for his tough hit on Jake Guentzel in Game 3, would Game 4 have played out differently?
We’ll never know.
Would a penalty shot for Nikita Kucherov, after his stick was broken from behind by Gustav Forsling during a breakaway, have changed the outcome of the first period?
We’ll never know.
If Brandon Hagel hadn’t been taken out by an illegal elbow that went uncalled, could the Lightning have secured a late lead in Monday’s game?
We’ll never know.
But here’s what we do know:
The Panthers are a resilient, skilled, and deep squad, while the Lightning appear to be lacking in those areas.
This leaves the Lightning’s season on shaky ground after their 4-2 defeat to the Panthers in Game 4 on Monday.
“Things happen in sports, and that’s what makes it exciting to watch,” said Lightning captain Victor Hedman. “It sucks to be on the wrong side of it.”
It feels like the Lightning have faced many critical moments in this series, but their struggles are not the sole reason they find themselves down 3-1 to the reigning Stanley Cup champions.
They’re struggling because their top-ranked offense is faltering in the playoffs. Their power play is stuck in a loop of passing instead of shooting. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been good but hasn’t single-handedly won them a game.
They also failed to hold a 2-1 lead with just five minutes left on Monday.
Do you realize how dramatic that 11-second swing in the third period was? Florida turned the tide in less time than it takes to grab a snack from the fridge.
But it meant so much more.
Tampa Bay was just five minutes away from tying the series—five minutes from swinging momentum back in their favor and turning it into a best-of-three showdown.
Instead, teams trailing 3-1 in NHL playoff series historically lose over 90% of the time.
In other words, those 11 seconds caused a dramatic shift for the Lightning.
“We’re going to learn from this,” said Lightning forward Mitchell Chaffee, who scored his first playoff goal to level the game at 1-1. “We’re not done yet.”
Technically, that’s true. But it feels like they’re close to the end. Last season, they were down 3-0 to Florida and won just one game before being eliminated. They faced a similar situation against Toronto and Colorado in previous playoffs, losing after winning only one game each time.
It doesn’t mean the Lightning can’t string together three victories against the Panthers in the coming days, but that feels like a tall order, especially since Hagel’s availability is in question after a heavy hit.
In Game 4, Tampa Bay opted for 11 forwards instead of the usual 12, and ended up with just 10 after Hagel left the ice. This meant players like Brayden Point, Guentzel, and Kucherov had to log about 25 minutes each to fill the gap.
That isn’t an unreasonable amount of ice time, but it poses challenges against a team as physical as Florida.
Tampa Bay’s offense isn’t just struggling to score; they’re having trouble creating scoring chances. Before Monday’s game, they ranked last among the remaining teams with an average of just 21 shots on goal.
In Game 4, they only managed 20 shots.
Their struggles are even more evident in the power play, with no goals in their last 14 man-advantage opportunities.
“It’s unfortunate,” coach Jon Cooper remarked. “We played well enough to win both games (in Sunrise), but came up short.”
It almost seems like Tampa Bay hasn’t switched to playoff mode. They appear to be focused on making perfect passes and fancy goals instead of just firing shots at Florida’s net and hoping for dirty goals from rebounds or flukes.
This is exactly how Florida scored twice in the third period. Vasilevskiy stopped a shot from Sam Reinhart, but the rebound fell to Ekblad, who scored easily. Just 11 seconds later, a long shot from Seth Jones bounced in off Ryan McDonagh’s skate, slipping past Vasilevskiy.
Could the Lightning have turned Game 4 around with a more aggressive, shoot-first strategy?
We’ll never know.
John Romano can be reached atjromano@tampabay.com. Follow @romano_tbtimes.
Conclusion
As the Lightning face an uphill battle in this playoff series, it remains to be seen if they can adapt and reclaim momentum. With the weight of the past bearing down, fans will be eagerly watching to see if Tampa Bay can turn the tide.
FAQs
1. What does it mean for the Lightning to be down 3-1 in the series?
Historically, teams facing a 3-1 deficit in NHL playoff series have a very low chance of winning the series, losing over 90% of the time.
2. Why are the Lightning struggling in the playoffs?
Their top offense has stalled, power plays have been ineffective, and they have not been able to create enough scoring opportunities.
3. What happened to Brandon Hagel during Game 4?
He suffered an illegal elbow to the head which led to him leaving the game, contributing to the Lightning’s depth issues on the ice.
